To see beyond business-as-usual and to anticipate future discontinuities. The purpose of trend watching is to deliver strategic value: It should enable decision-makers to perceive their future external environment. What is needed for planning is not a set of isolated trends, but multidimensional models that interrelate forces, technological, social, political, even cultural, along with economics. In periods of rapid change, strategic planning based on straight-line trend extrapolation is inherently treacherous. Close-knit industries can be especially vulnerable to strategic surprise ‘because all the member companies look to each other for standards of best practice. Pretty soon, every player in the industry is innovating to the same reasoning, until a new norm is established.
Rehearsing the future creates confidence. Change still occurs at the same pace it’s just not perceived to be disruptive or overwhelming because the organisation can detect and make sense of it earlier and is rehearsed in its response. The learning from scenarios ‘slows down change’. The more the decision-makers feel that they understand their environment, understand the dangers but also perceive potential opportunities, the more are they able to take riskier decisions. If company-wide strategic understanding, belief and ownership are low, is it any wonder that strategic implementation is poor? That means embedding a process that is creative, learning-based and participatory. And it is a business muscle that needs flex constantly. It is the foundation of corporate entrepreneurship and innovation. Strategic design is the organisation’s principal creative and learning activity Reperceiving the future business environment and reconceiving the organisation’s role within these different futures. It involves two significant creative steps. Strategic design is about setting the organisation’s future direction and goals. You need to be able to predict the future. In an increasingly uncertain environment, organisations must develop the sensitivity to anticipate emerging market shifts and turn future ambiguity into an ongoing strategic advantage.
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Hence “Rethinking Strategy: How to anticipate the future, slow down change, and improve decision making”. The faster you, the further you need to look ahead. We simply do not have the attention span to think long term. I believe we have lost the art of the long view (another cracking book).
I think strategy is very much underestimated as a skill set in business. My favourite book is “33 strategies of war”, but I am also a big fan of Kenichi Ohmae (found a paperback “The Mind of the Strategist” in my office recently), and I loved “Thriving on chaos” by Tom Peters.
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